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美国经济是否为贸易争端买单?经济学家各有说法

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月16日 13:26:09
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(原)(标)(题)(:美)(国)(经)(济)(是)(否)(为)(贸)(易)(争)(端)(买)(单)(?经)(济)(学)(家)(各)(有)(说)(法)(
美)(国)(政)(府)(四)(处)(挑)(起)(和)(升)(级)(贸)(易)(争)(端)(,搅)(得)(世)(界)(各)(地)(不)(得)(安)(宁)(,本)(国)(经)(济)(也)(受)(到)(影)(响)(,就)(贸)(易)(战)(对)(美)(国)(就)(业)(岗)(位)(的)(影)(响)(,研)(究)(所)(与)(经)(济)(学)(家)(却)(观)(点)(不)(一)(。
美)(国)(经)(济)(研)(究)(所)(称)(贸)(易)(促)(进)(美)(国)(就)(业)(
日)(前)(,美)(国)(全)(国)(经)(济)(研)(究)(所)(发)(布)(的)(工)(作)(论)(文)(称)(,美)(中)(贸)(易)(总)(体)(上)(促)(进)(了)(美)(国)(就)(业)(,并)(使)(四)(分)(之)(三)(的)(美)(国)(工)(人)(的)(实)(际)(工)(资)(有)(所)(增)(加)(。
此)(项)(研)(究)(说)(,有)(强)(有)(力)(的)(证)(据)(表)(明)(,美)(国)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(对)(本)(地)(就)(业)(和)(实)(际)(工)(资)(的)(整)(体)(影)(响)(是)(积)(极)(的)(。
因)(为)(美)(国)(从)(中)(国)(进)(口)(的)(中)(间)(商)(品)(占)(总)(进)(口)(的)(比)(例)(从)(2000年)(的)(28.6%增)(长)(到)(2014年)(的)(37.5%。这)(意)(味)(着)(,越)(来)(越)(多)(美)(国)(企)(业)(有)(赖)(于)(从)(中)(国)(进)(口)(的)(中)(间)(商)(品)(才)(能)(生)(产)(出)(最)(终)(消)(费)(品)(,这)(些)(进)(口)(的)(中)(间)(商)(品)(提)(高)(了)(美)(国)(的)(生)(产)(效)(率)(,也)(增)(加)(了)(就)(业)(岗)(位)(。
研)(究)(显)(示)(,虽)(然)(那)(些)(和)(中)(国)(产)(业)(存)(在)(竞)(争)(性)(关)(系)(的)(美)(国)(制)(造)(业)(及)(其)(上)(游)(产)(业)(存)(在)(就)(业)(压)(力)(,但)(下)(游)(产)(业)(却)(存)(在)(明)(显)(的)(就)(业)(增)(加)(,该)(研)(究)(还)(发)(现)(,得)(益)(于)(美)(中)(贸)(易)(,75%的)(美)(国)(工)(人)(工)(资)(增)(长)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(美)(国)(工)(人)(从)(美)(中)(贸)(易)(中)(获)(益)(而)(非)(受)(损)(。
但)(是)(,需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,以)(往)(研)(究)(往)(往)(是)(以)(美)(中)(两)(国)(有)(竞)(争)(关)(系)(的)(产)(业)(为)(切)(入)(点)(,但)(这)(项)(最)(新)(研)(究)(增)(加)(了)(以)(往)(被)(忽)(略)(的)(供)(应)(链)(视)(角)(,尤)(其)(是)(将)(零)(部)(件)(等)(“中)(间)(产)(品)(”纳)(入)(研)(究)(视)(野)(。
虽)(然)(此)(项)(研)(究)(是)(这)(样)(说)(,但)(是)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(学)(教)(授)(安)(妮)(·克)(鲁)(格)(却)(认)(为)(,贸)(易)(战)(将)(给)(美)(国)(消)(费)(者)(和)(企)(业)(双)(方)(同)(时)(带)(来)(打)(击)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(为)(贸)(易)(战)(埋)(单)(。
美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(为)(贸)(易)(战)(买)(单)(
美)(国)(约)(翰)(斯)(·霍)(普)(金)(斯)(大)(学)(国)(际)(经)(济)(学)(高)(级)(研)(究)(教)(授)(安)(妮)(·克)(鲁)(格)(认)(为)(,贸)(易)(战)(将)(给)(美)(国)(消)(费)(者)(和)(企)(业)(双)(方)(同)(时)(带)(来)(打)(击)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(为)(贸)(易)(战)(买)(单)(。
克)(鲁)(格)(表)(示)(,尽)(管)(美)(国)(政)(府)(表)(示)(尽)(量)(避)(免)(对)(直)(接)(影)(响)(消)(费)(者)(的)(商)(品)(加)(征)(关)(税)(,但)(从)(长)(远)(看)(,只)(要)(贸)(易)(战)(不)(停)(止)(,消)(费)(者)(肯)(定)(会)(蒙)(受)(更)(多)(损)(失)(。随)(着)(美)(国)(制)(造)(商)(的)(成)(本)(超)(过)(其)(海)(外)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(,美)(国)(消)(费)(者)(将)(不)(得)(不)(为)(商)(品)(支)(付)(更)(高)(昂)(的)(价)(格)(。
连)(日)(来)(,美)(国)(贸)(易)(代)(表)(办)(公)(室)(在)(华)(盛)(顿)(举)(行)(听)(证)(会)(,就)(拟)(针)(对)(2000亿)(美)(元)(中)(国)(输)(美)(产)(品)(加)(征)(关)(税)(一)(事)(听)(取)(公)(众)(意)(见)(。听)(证)(会)(上)(,众)(多)(企)(业)(代)(表)(表)(示)(,加)(征)(关)(税)(可)(能)(迫)(使)(企)(业)(提)(高)(商)(品)(价)(格)(。
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