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【招商宏观】招商宏观经典报告精选之3—货币、监管和流动性

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月20日 12:19:11
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(原)(标)(题)(:【招)(商)(宏)(观)(】招)(商)(宏)(观)(经)(典)(报)(告)(精)(选)(之)(3—货)(币)(、监)(管)(和)(流)(动)(性)(
研)(究)(脉)(络)(之)(一)(:全)(球)(货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(趋)(保)(守)(、金)(融)(监)(管)(有)(望)(加)(强)(。
2016年)(8月)(率)(先)(向)(市)(场)(提)(示)(全)(球)(货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(趋)(保)(守)(,在)(《转)(向)(“保)(守)(”货)(币)(政)(策)(条)(件)(下)(的)(中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(形)(势)(电)(话)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(》指)(出)(美)(欧)(日)(发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(转)(趋)(保)(守)(的)(政)(策)(迹)(象)(,还)(谈)(到)(中)(国)(央)(行)(的)(三)(个)(表)(现)(,明)(确)(降)(准)(降)(息)(存)(在)(的)(风)(险)(、启)(动)(MPA宏)(观)(审)(慎)(管)(理)(框)(架)(、一)(行)(三)(会)(强)(化)(金)(融)(监)(管)(。转)(趋)(保)(守)(的)(原)(因)(在)(于)(,超)(常)(规)(的)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(负)(效)(应)(正)(在)(超)(过)(正)(效)(应)(,导)(致)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(风)(险)(、抑)(制)(总)(需)(求)(、引)(发)(汇)(率)(战)(进)(而)(影)(响)(到)(各)(国)(实)(体)(经)(济)(。转)(趋)(保)(守)(的)(影)(响)(,一)(是)(实)(物)(资)(产)(未)(来)(应)(该)(会)(更)(好)(于)(金)(融)(资)(产)(,股)(权)(应)(该)(更)(好)(于)(债)(权)(。二)(是)(美)(元)(指)(数)(有)(可)(能)(往)(92左)(右)(的)(幅)(度)(方)(向)(上)(回)(落)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(减)(弱)(。三)(是)(欧)(美)(分)(化)(减)(弱)(,资)(本)(外)(流)(程)(度)(放)(缓)(。
研)(究)(脉)(络)(之)(二)(:准)(确)(预)(判)(M2增)(速)(的)(回)(落)(和)(“负)(债)(荒)(”的)(持)(续)(性)(
在)(《2017年)(下)(半)(年)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(展)(望)(-疾)(风)(知)(劲)(草)(》预)(判)(M2增)(速)(告)(别)(10%的)(增)(长)(,以)(剖)(析)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(的)(方)(式)(解)(读)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(影)(响)(,理)(财)(增)(速)(将)(放)(缓)(,银)(行)(“负)(债)(荒)(”导)(致)(同)(业)(存)(单)(的)(供)(给)(较)(高)(,同)(业)(存)(单)(利)(率)(易)(上)(难)(下)(。随)(后)(就)(在)(央)(行)(公)(布)(M2快)(速)(回)(落)(至)(9.6%,得)(到)(验)(证)(。在)(《从)(M2结)(构)(变)(化)(看)(未)(来)(走)(势)(-有)(关)(货)(币)(的)(学)(与)(思)(之)(三)(》探)(讨)(M2的)(结)(构)(变)(化)(,即)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(持)(有)(的)(M2同)(比)(增)(速)(仍)(高)(于)(10%,非)(银)(部)(门)(持)(有)(的)(M2快)(速)(回)(落)(至)(0%附)(近)(;探)(究)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(贡)(献)(,央)(行)(引)(入)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(管)(理)(体)(系)(MPA考)(核)(是)(M2回)(落)(的)(主)(因)(,其)(次)(才)(是)(4月)(之)(后)(的)(强)(监)(管)(政)(策)(;预)(判)(M2将)(趋)(势)(回)(落)(,至)(年)(末)(降)(至)(9.0%至)(9.5%。在)(《十)(张)(图)(看)(懂)(存)(款)(为)(何)(下)(行)(-有)(关)(货)(币)(的)(学)(与)(思)(之)(四)(》,分)(析)(驱)(动)(存)(款)(各)(部)(分)(趋)(势)(变)(化)(的)(原)(因)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(如)(果)(下)(半)(年)(MPA监)(管)(仍)(持)(续)(推)(进)(,房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(不)(松)(,企)(业)(定)(期)(和)(活)(期)(存)(款)(增)(长)(会)(继)(续)(收)(到)(制)(约)(;而)(企)(业)(活)(期)(存)(款)(边)(际)(上)(的)(改)(善)(来)(自)(于)(银)(行)(业)(务)(的)(调)(整)(减)(缓)(货)(币)(派)(生)(能)(力)(的)(下)(滑)(,以)(及)(债)(市)(融)(资)(环)(境)(的)(回)(暖)(。
研)(究)(脉)(络)(之)(三)(:深)(入)(剖)(析)(MPA在)(不)(同)(时)(期)(的)(影)(响)(
《MPA存)(在)(的)(八)(个)(误)(解)(—宏)(观)(审)(慎)(管)(理)(体)(系)((MPA)专)(题)(研)(究)(之)(一)(》指)(出)(MPA会)(促)(进)(表)(外)(业)(务)(的)(增)(长)(,最)(核)(心)(的)(制)(约)(因)(素)(是)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(资)(本)(充)(足)(率)(,该)(指)(标)(倒)(算)(出)(的)(广)(义)(信)(贷)(合)(理)(增)(速)(较)(低)(。随)(后)(表)(外)(理)(财)(纳)(入)(监)(管)(口)(径)(,《MPA完)(善)(版)(的)(新)(规)(影)(响)(几)(何)(?-宏)(观)(审)(慎)(管)(理)(体)(系)((MPA)专)(题)(研)(究)(之)(二)(》中)(指)(出)(M2将)(趋)(势)(下)(行)(,表)(外)(理)(财)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(。在)(6月)(末)(的)(流)(动)(性)(报)(告)(中)(测)(算)(,MPA考)(核)(压)(力)(在)(6月)(份)(的)(约)(束)(可)(能)(低)(于)(预)(期)(。
研)(究)(脉)(络)(之)(四)(:构)(建)(流)(动)(性)(分)(析)(框)(架)(
我)(们)(每)(个)(月)(都)(会)(对)(影)(响)(流)(动)(性)(的)(各)(个)(因)(素)(进)(行)(剖)(析)(,除)(了)(常)(规)(的)(M0、财)(政)(存)(款)(、准)(备)(金)(上)(缴)(、货)(币)(工)(具)(组)(合)(净)(投)(放)(折)(射)(出)(的)(央)(行)(态)(度)(变)(化)(之)(外)(,我)(们)(还)(会)(重)(点)(分)(析)(MPA和)(一)(行)(三)(会)(监)(管)(政)(策)(变)(化)(、以)(及)(央)(行)(和)(银)(行)(之)(间)(博)(弈)(带)(来)(的)(影)(响)(。我)(们)(预)(判)(6月)(份)(流)(动)(性)(前)(紧)(后)(松)(,不)(必)(担)(忧)(“钱)(荒)(”再)(现)(。《外)(汇)(占)(款)(对)(流)(动)(性)(影)(响)(的)(探)(讨)(--2017年)(7月)(流)(动)(性)(前)(瞻)(》分)(析)(年)(内)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(“低)(速)(增)(长)(”对)(流)(动)(性)(的)(补)(充)(有)(限)(。《让)(人)(不)(省)(心)(的)(流)(动)(性)(--2017年)(8月)(流)(动)(性)(前)(瞻)(》指)(出)(对)(8月)(流)(动)(性)(不)(可)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(。
研)(究)(脉)(络)(之)(五)(:预)(判)(政)(策)(利)(率)(上)(调)(对)(经)(济)(负)(面)(影)(响)(有)(限)(
《“粉)(”铺)(涨)(价)(对)(经)(济)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(有)(限)(-有)(关)(货)(币)(的)(学)(与)(思)(之)(一)(》分)(析)(春)(节)(前)(后)(首)(次)(典)(型)(的)(利)(率)(调)(控)(工)(具)(的)(使)(用)(对)(经)(济)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(有)(限)(。从)(传)(导)(过)(程)(来)(看)(,政)(策)(利)(率)(→融)(资)(利)(率)(→社)(会)(融)(资)(规)(模)(→投)(资)(→经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(关)(键)(还)(是)(需)(要)(观)(察)(央)(行)(数)(量)(型)(调)(控)(中)(对)(非)(房)(贷)(部)(分)(的)(信)(贷)(增)(速)(和)(其)(他)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(变)(化)(。我)(们)(在)(此)(后)(多)(次)(跟)(踪)(进)(行)(评)(估)(,从)(两)(个)(季)(度)(之)(后)(的)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,住)(房)(按)(揭)(利)(率)(、一)(般)(贷)(款)(加)(权)(利)(率)(等)(各)(类)(型)(的)(融)(资)(利)(率)(升)(幅)(符)(合)(预)(期)(,从)(总)(体)(社)(会)(融)(资)(成)(本)(来)(看)(,2017年)(上)(半)(年)(社)(会)(综)(合)(融)(资)(成)(本)(小)(幅)(抬)(升)(67bp左)(右)(,仍)(处)(于)(历)(史)(较)(低)(的)(水)(平)(,银)(行)(资)(金)(供)(给)(也)(依)(然)(偏)(好)(实)(体)(,最)(终)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(确)(实)(有)(限)(。
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