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国际政治中的“骗局”是如何制造的?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月18日 12:44:38
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u米龙虎和代理平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【957734114】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。国际政治中的“骗局”是如何制造的?

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(作)(者)(认)(为)(,在)(错)(综)(复)(杂)(的)(国)(际)(关)(系)(中)(,行)(为)(体)((国)(家)(或)(国)(际)(组)(织)(等)()为)(了)(达)(到)(自)(己)(特)(定)(的)(目)(的)(,会)(经)(常)(通)(过)(操)(控)(某)(些)(标)(志)((不)(同)(于)(“信)(号)(”)来)(表)(达)(自)(己)(的)(意)(思)(,但)(意)(思)(本)(身)(能)(否)(被)(准)(确)(传)(达)(,却)(存)(在)(不)(可)(预)(测)(性)(,因)(为)(有)(诸)(多)(影)(响)(因)(素)(的)(存)(在)(,会)(对)(其)(构)(成)(影)(响)(。例)(如)(,如)(果)(一)(个)(行)(为)(体)(假)(定)(,由)(于)(它)(的)(某)(些)(行)(动)(,与)(它)(之)(前)(在)(国)(际)(关)(系)(中)(体)(现)(出)(的)(个)(性)(和)(意)(图)(有)(关)(系)(,那)(么)(它)(自)(己)(的)(其)(它)(行)(为)(,也)(要)(与)(这)(类)(似)(乎)(是)(标)(签)(式)(的)(个)(性)(有)(关)(,那)(么)(过)(度)(依)(赖)(这)(种)(判)(断)(,恰)(恰)(可)(能)(导)(致)(预)(测)(错)(误)(。换)(言)(之)(,人)(们)(在)(推)(测)(信)(号)(所)(希)(望)(传)(达)(的)(意)(思)(之)(时)(,必)(须)(将)(不)(同)(时)(段)(之)(间)(的)(变)(化)(考)(虑)(在)(内)(。例)(如)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(想)(到)(,在)(上)(述)(中)(美)(关)(系)(冷)(冻)(期)(的)(例)(子)(中)(,美)(国)(政)(府)(显)(然)(没)(有)(意)(识)(到)(中)(国)(希)(望)(中)(美)(关)(系)(出)(现)(变)(化)(这)(一)(关)(键)(因)(素)(,而)(是)(想)(当)(然)(地)(以)(中)(国)(在)(他)(们)(眼)(中)(固)(有)(的)(形)(象)(来)(看)(待)(中)(国)(,因)(此)(才)(导)(致)(了)(对)(信)(号)(的)(忽)(略)(。
这)(类)(误)(读)(的)(另)(一)(个)(经)(典)(例)(子)(是)(,在)(20世)(纪)(30年)(代)(,英)(国)(驻)(罗)(马)(和)(柏)(林)(的)(大)(使)(都)(需)(要)(经)(常)(预)(测)(驻)(在)(国)(的)(政)(策)(,但)(此)(时)(他)(们)(却)(面)(临)(着)(这)(样)(的)(考)(验)(,“显)(然)(,来)(源)(于)(民)(主)(国)(家)(的)(大)(使)(发)(现)(了)(自)(己)(身)(处)(极)(权)(国)(家)(而)(出)(现)(的)(困)(境)(……训)(练)(外)(交)(官)(评)(估)(驻)(在)(国)(政)(治)(趋)(势)(的)(方)(法)(,对)(身)(处)(极)(权)(国)(家)(的)(他)(们)(无)(用)(。外)(交)(官)(并)(未)(得)(到)(必)(要)(的)(训)(练)(,以)(使)(他)(们)(的)(观)(点)(和)(建)(议)(建)(立)(在)(经)(济)(发)(展)(和)(军)(事)(预)(算)(的)(深)(入)(研)(究)(和)(专)(业)(知)(识)(上)(;他)(们)(从)(报)(纸)(、政)(治)(会)(议)(中)(,以)(及)(与)(经)(常)(保)(持)(联)(系)(的)(不)(同)(政)(治)(人)(物)(的)(交)(流)(中)(求)(得)(民)(意)(,然)(后)(在)(分)(析)(民)(间)(的)(基)(础)(上)(评)(估)(未)(来)(政)(策)(的)(趋)(势)(”,但)(在)(极)(权)(国)(家)(,对)(这)(些)(线)(索)(的)(控)(制)(,显)(然)(无)(法)(让)(外)(交)(官)(得)(出)(有)(效)(的)(结)(论)(,因)(为)(民)(意)(本)(身)(就)(是)(被)(操)(控)(的)(。
在)(国)(际)(关)(系)(中)(,领)(导)(人)(还)(常)(常)(会)(利)(用)(对)(自)(己)(个)(性)(的)(操)(控)(来)(达)(到)(特)(定)(的)(目)(的)(。希)(特)(勒)(就)(是)(操)(纵)(自)(己)(个)(性)(标)(志)(的)(大)(师)(。在)(与)(奥)(地)(利)(总)(理)(许)(士)(尼)(格)(会)(谈)(时)(,希)(特)(勒)(先)(是)(威)(胁)(说)(,如)(果)(对)(方)(不)(签)(协)(议)(并)(在)(三)(天)(内)(执)(行)(协)(议)(的)(部)(分)(内)(容)(,他)(就)(要)(入)(侵)(奥)(地)(利)(。当)(时)(许)(士)(尼)(格)(犹)(豫)(不)(决)(,表)(示)(他)(想)(签)(,但)(又)(不)(能)(签)(,因)(为)(奥)(地)(利)(有)(宪)(法)(,根)(据)(宪)(法)(的)(限)(制)(,还)(有)(诸)(多)(问)(题)(没)(有)(解)(决)(。希)(特)(勒)(顿)(时)(勃)(然)(大)(怒)(,猛)(然)(打)(开)(房)(门)(,要)(求)(对)(方)(退)(场)(,并)(大)(吼)(大)(叫)(,召)(唤)(凯)(特)(尔)(将)(军)(。而)(当)(凯)(特)(尔)(急)(急)(忙)(忙)(赶)(来)(,询)(问)(希)(特)(勒)(有)(何)(指)(示)(时)(,希)(特)(勒)(却)(露)(齿)(而)(笑)(:“没)(指)(示)(,我)(就)(是)(想)(让)(你)(来)(这)(儿)(。”显)(然)(,通)(过)(发)(脾)(气)(这)(种)(他)(常)(用)(的)(操)(控)(个)(性)(的)(方)(式)(,希)(特)(勒)(顺)(利)(达)(到)(了)(威)(慑)(对)(手)(、不)(费)(一)(兵)(一)(卒)(而)(吞)(并)(奥)(地)(利)(的)(目)(的)(。
此)(外)(经)(常)(出)(现)(的)(一)(种)(情)(况)(是)(,人)(们)(常)(会)(误)(认)(为)(,通)(过)(判)(断)(行)(为)(体)(愿)(意)(承)(受)(多)(大)(的)(代)(价)(,以)(及)(冒)(多)(大)(的)(风)(险)(,就)(能)(估)(计)(出)(对)(方)(行)(为)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。但)(事)(实)(上)(,当)(一)(个)(行)(为)(体)(卷)(入)(一)(场)(持)(续)(的)(冲)(突)(时)(,他)(可)(能)(愿)(意)(以)(高)(昂)(的)(短)(期)(成)(本)(为)(代)(价)(,来)(换)(取)(更)(大)(的)(长)(期)(收)(益)(。在)(此)(问)(题)(上)(,人)(们)(常)(会)(忽)(视)(决)(心)(的)(重)(要)(性)(。而)(一)(个)(希)(望)(表)(现)(出)(强)(烈)(决)(心)(的)(国)(家)(,很)(可)(能)(会)(选)(择)(在)(小)(事)(上)(挑)(起)(一)(场)(危)(机)(,或)(是)(为)(了)(相)(对)(较)(小)(的)(利)(害)(关)(系)(,而)(打)(一)(场)(短)(期)(的)(高)(成)(本)(战)(争)(,目)(的)(就)(是)(希)(望)(通)(过)(这)(样)(做)(,来)(获)(得)(在)(国)(际)(间)(的)(声)(望)(。而)(在)(此)(情)(形)(之)(下)(,如)(果)(行)(为)(体)(能)(令)(观)(察)(者)(相)(信)(,采)(取)(欺)(骗)(行)(为)(代)(价)(过)(高)(,他)(就)(可)(能)(操)(纵)(成)(功)(。因)(此)(,常)(常)(会)(有)(为)(小)(事)(而)(战)(的)(国)(家)(刻)(意)(夸)(大)(自)(己)(将)(要)(付)(出)(的)(代)(价)(,同)(时)(强)(调)(他)(今)(后)(可)(能)(为)(类)(似)(的)(目)(标)(再)(次)(付)(出)(相)(同)(的)(成)(本)(。
与)(之)(相)(反)(的)(情)(况)(同)(样)(广)(泛)(存)(在)(。如)(果)(一)(个)(行)(为)(体)(希)(望)(别)(人)(相)(信)(自)(己)(是)(温)(和)(而)(理)(性)(的)(,则)(无)(论)(它)(所)(塑)(造)(的)(形)(象)(是)(否)(符)(合)(事)(实)(,他)(都)(最)(好)(不)(要)(太)(贪)(图)(重)(大)(的)(短)(期)(收)(益)(,以)(达)(到)(“放)(长)(线)(、钓)(大)(鱼)(”的)(目)(的)(。比)(如)(,在)(20世)(纪)(30年)(代)(,苏)(联)(希)(望)(给)(世)(界)(、特)(别)(是)(给)(英)(国)(一)(个)(自)(己)(有)(意)(和)(解)(的)(印)(象)(,目)(的)(在)(于)(争)(取)(时)(间)(,壮)(大)(自)(己)(的)(实)(力)(,最)(终)(有)(能)(力)(与)(西)(方)(对)(决)(。为)(了)(隐)(藏)(自)(己)(的)(真)(实)(想)(法)(,它)(在)(与)(爱)(沙)(尼)(亚)(谈)(判)(和)(平)(条)(约)(时)(,所)(作)(出)(的)(让)(步)(,就)(比)(在)(其)(他)(情)(况)(下)(要)(大)(得)(多)(。事)(实)(证)(明)(,这)(一)(策)(略)(是)(有)(效)(的)(。苏)(联)(的)(行)(为)(,在)(当)(时)(被)(舆)(论)(认)(为)(是)(“加)(强)(了)(英)(国)(国)(内)(敦)(促)(对)(苏)(采)(取)(友)(好)(战)(略)(的)(温)(和)(派)(人)(士)(的)(力)(量)(”,而)(苏)(联)(从)(这)(种)(误)(判)(中)(获)(得)(的)(最)(终)(收)(益)(,显)(然)(远)(高)(于)(当)(初)(对)(爱)(沙)(尼)(亚)(让)(步)(的)(成)(本)(。
二)(
不)(过)(,尽)(管)(人)(们)(常)(常)(会)(利)(用)(向)(对)(方)(提)(供)(虚)(假)(信)(息)(,来)(达)(到)(欺)(骗)(的)(目)(的)(,但)(在)(国)(际)(关)(系)(中)(,说)(谎)(者)(仍)(然)(会)(受)(到)(诸)(多)(制)(约)(。首)(先)(是)(道)(德)(上)(的)(限)(制)(。决)(策)(者)(可)(能)(会)(感)(到)(,尽)(管)(能)(短)(期)(占)(到)(便)(宜)(,但)(有)(些)(说)(谎)(行)(为)(仍)(然)(是)(不)(是)(值)(得)(的)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(,某)(些)(谎)(言)(一)(旦)(被)(戳)(穿)(,它)(会)(对)(国)(家)(形)(象)(造)(成)(无)(法)(弥)(补)(的)(损)(失)(,让)(国)(家)(得)(不)(偿)(失)(。在)(这)(方)(面)(,著)(名)(学)(者)(汉)(斯)(·摩)(根)(索)(对)(国)(际)(政)(治)(中)(道)(德)(的)(重)(要)(性)(的)(阐)(释)(,是)(非)(常)(值)(得)(重)(视)(的)(。不)(过)(总)(体)(而)(言)(,如)(今)(这)(个)(时)(代)(,国)(家)(关)(系)(中)(对)(谎)(言)(的)(限)(制)(,已)(经)(远)(不)(如)(18世)(纪)(那)(样)(一)(个)(强)(调)(道)(德)(的)(时)(代)(,对)(谎)(言)(的)(限)(制)(作)(用)(之)(大)(了)(。
而)(在)(国)(际)(关)(系)(中)(,与)(发)(信)(号)(行)(为)(相)(关)(的)(利)(害)(关)(切)(的)(重)(点)(在)(于)(,信)(号)(非)(常)(有)(助)(于)(预)(测)(,这)(似)(乎)(乎)(已)(经)(成)(为)(共)(识)((除)(了)(那)(些)(有)(意)(彻)(底)(、立)(刻)(推)(翻)(国)(际)(体)(系)(的)(国)(家)(之)(外)()。信)(号)(如)(此)(受)(到)(重)(视)(,原)(因)(在)(于)(,国)(家)(通)(常)(都)(会)(发)(现)(,让)(别)(国)(相)(信)(自)(己)(会)(以)(某)(种)(特)(定)(的)(方)(式)(行)(动)(,是)(很)(重)(要)(、也)(是)(对)(自)(己)(有)(利)(的)(。相)(应)(地)(,它)(也)(需)(要)(依)(赖)(信)(号)(体)(系)(,来)(尽)(可)(能)(准)(确)(推)(测)(出)(对)(方)(国)(家)(的)(意)(图)(。所)(以)(事)(实)(上)(,在)(当)(代)(世)(界)(,很)(少)(有)(国)(家)(希)(望)(看)(到)(信)(号)(体)(系)(被)(降)(格)(为)(彻)(底)(无)(用)(之)(物)(,因)(为)(这)(对)(所)(有)(人)(都)(不)(利)(。
尽)(管)(如)(此)(,对)(任)(何)(单)(一)(国)(家)(而)(言)(,最)(好)(的)(结)(果)(可)(能)(是)(,他)(想)(骗)(谁)(就)(骗)(谁)(,但)(却)(从)(不)(被)(骗)(。尽)(管)(这)(事)(实)(上)(不)(太)(可)(能)(,因)(为)(当)(有)(太)(多)(国)(家)(像)(它)(一)(样)(经)(常)(实)(施)(欺)(骗)(行)(为)(式)(时)(,信)(号)(体)(系)(的)(可)(信)(度)(就)(会)(自)(然)(地)(被)(降)(格)(——比)(如)(被)(认)(为)(只)(能)(携)(带)(少)(量)(信)(息)(——甚)(至)(被)(摧)(毁)(。不)(过)(,几)(乎)(所)(有)(的)(国)(家)(都)(仍)(然)(会)(因)(为)(受)(到)(各)(方)(压)(力)(,而)(选)(择)(通)(过)(虚)(张)(声)(势)(等)(说)(谎)(行)(为)(来)(获)(益)(。
在)(欺)(骗)(行)(为)(受)(到)(的)(制)(约)(中)(,国)(际)(环)(境)(也)(是)(十)(分)(重)(要)(的)(。因)(为)(一)(国)(的)(信)(号)(就)(算)(是)(欺)(骗)(性)(的)(,也)(仍)(然)(可)(以)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(反)(映)(出)(该)(国)(将)(如)(何)(行)(动)(,因)(此)(欺)(骗)(本)(身)(,就)(具)(有)(改)(变)(国)(际)(环)(境)(的)(作)(用)(,而)(这)(也)(恰)(恰)(是)(国)(家)(在)(行)(欺)(骗)(行)(为)(之)(前)(,需)(要)(三)(思)(的)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。因)(为)(,如)(果)(其)(它)(国)(家)(选)(择)(了)(相)(信)(这)(些)(欺)(骗)(性)(的)(信)(号)(,那)(么)(它)(们)(也)(必)(然)(会)(以)(自)(己)(的)(方)(式)(来)(改)(变)(体)(系)(的)(权)(力)(分)(配)(,以)(便)(争)(取)(让)(这)(种)(新)(的)(权)(力)(分)(配)(符)(合)(本)(国)(的)(利)(益)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,一)(个)(国)(家)(的)(撒)(谎)(行)(为)(,看)(似)(是)(孤)(立)(的)(,但)(它)(可)(能)(引)(发)(的)(后)(果)(,却)(可)(以)(完)(全)(不)(受)(撒)(谎)(国)(家)(的)(操)(控)(,因)(为)(在)(所)(有)(事)(务)(中)(,尤)(其)(是)(在)(国)(际)(关)(系)(中)(,某)(一)(事)(件)(的)(结)(局)(,总)(是)(取)(决)(于)(多)(种)(力)(量)(的)(角)(力)(,而)(绝)(非)(一)(方)(所)(能)(决)(定)(的)(。例)(如)(,A国)(向)(B国)(示)(好)(,同)(时)(又)(向)(C国)(释)(放)(敌)(意)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(,出)(于)(实)(力)(对)(比)(悬)(殊)(的)(考)(量)(,A是)(希)(望)(私)(下)(说)(服)(C 国)(,与)(其)(合)(伙)(来)(反)(对)(B国)(。不)(过)(,如)(果)(C 国)(相)(信)(公)(开)(的)(信)(号)(,那)(么)(A国)(就)(会)(发)(现)(,与)(B国)(结)(盟)(是)(符)(合)(自)(己)(利)(益)(的)(。另)(一)(种)(可)(能)(出)(现)(的)(情)(况)(是)(,如)(果)(A国)(声)(明)(将)(保)(护)(B国)(而)(反)(对)(C国)(,那)(么)(就)(算)(这)(个)(声)(明)(的)(本)(意)(是)(虚)(张)(声)(势)(,但)(要)(是)(导)(致)(了)(大)(量)(的)(国)(家)(为)(了)(获)(得)(保)(护)(而)(选)(择)(与)(A国)(结)(盟)(,那)(么)(A国)(最)(终)(也)(许)(会)(发)(现)(,自)(己)(真)(的)(可)(以)(有)(实)(力)(与)(C国)(对)(抗)(了)(。这)(完)(全)(出)(乎)(了)(A国)(最)(初)(的)(预)(料)(。因)(此)(,信)(号)(的)(涵)(义)(,既)(可)(以)(是)(自)(我)(实)(现)(,也)(可)(以)(是)(自)(我)(否)(认)(的)(,所)(以)(,信)(号)(的)(确)(有)(改)(变)(国)(际)(环)(境)(的)(作)(用)(。
而)(在)(限)(制)(说)(谎)(的)(各)(种)(因)(素)(中)(,国)(内)(因)(素)(显)(然)(是)(最)(重)(要)(的)(。如)(果)(一)(国)(公)(开)(提)(出)(主)(张)(或)(作)(出)(承)(诺)(,但)(又)(不)(采)(取)(相)(应)(的)(行)(动)(,就)(有)(可)(能)(会)(触)(犯)(民)(意)(。在)(民)(主)(国)(家)(,这)(至)(少)(会)(让)(决)(策)(者)(害)(怕)(民)(意)(反)(弹)(,尤)(其)(是)(当)(政)(府)(承)(诺)(的)(国)(际)(政)(策)(广)(受)(国)(内)(民)(众)(欢)(迎)(时)(。此)(外)(,在)(民)(主)(国)(家)(,民)(众)(多)(有)(希)(望)(本)(国)(政)(府)(在)(国)(内)(和)(国)(际)(上)(均)(言)(行)(一)(致)(的)(期)(待)(。如)(果)(在)(国)(际)(上)(频)(频)(撒)(谎)(,决)(策)(者)(可)(能)(会)(冒)(相)(当)(大)(的)(道)(德)(风)(险)(,被)(国)(内)(选)(民)(认)(为)(是)(天)(生)(的)(说)(谎)(者)(,最)(终)(影)(响)(自)(己)(当)(选)(。
此)(外)(,撒)(谎)(之)(后)(,决)(策)(者)(可)(能)(会)(迫)(于)(各)(方)(压)(力)(,不)(得)(不)(推)(出)(与)(先)(前)(承)(诺)(相)(一)(致)(的)(承)(诺)(,由)(此)(可)(能)(会)(发)(生)(自)(己)(意)(想)(不)(到)(的)(坏)(结)(局)(。还)(有)(一)(种)(情)(况)(是)(,计)(划)(的)(执)(行)(者)(在)(不)(知)(情)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,被)(说)(谎)(行)(为)(误)(导)(,而)(执)(行)(了)(与)(决)(策)(者)(原)(本)(之)(意)(图)(截)(然)(相)(反)(的)(行)(动)(,而)(导)(致)(不)(可)(挽)(回)(的)(损)(失)(。所)(有)(这)(些)(不)(可)(控)(的)(因)(素)(,都)(会)(让)(一)(个)(有)(经)(验)(的)(决)(策)(者)(,在)(说)(谎)(之)(前)(三)(思)(。
三)(
不)(过)(,也)(有)(不)(少)(学)(者)(认)(为)(,作)(者)(在)(书)(中)(提)(出)(的)(两)(个)(关)(键)(概)(念)(,“标)(志)(”和)(“信)(号)(”,在)(现)(实)(中)(往)(往)(难)(以)(准)(确)(区)(分)(。因)(为)(针)(对)(同)(一)(事)(件)(,行)(为)(体)(的)(某)(些)(行)(为)(,很)(可)(能)(既)(是)(“标)(志)(”,又)(是)(“信)(号)(”。况)(且)(,随)(着)(局)(势)(的)(变)(化)(,原)(本)(可)(被)(定)(义)(为)(“标)(志)(”的)(行)(为)(,很)(可)(能)(会)(转)(变)(为)(“信)(号)(”。因)(此)(,当)(下)(的)(研)(究)(者)(一)(般)(都)(主)(张)(,通)(过)(成)(本)(的)(高)(低)(来)(判)(断)(行)(为)(体)(所)(发)(信)(号)(的)(真)(实)(性)(。这)(里)(的)(成)(本)(,不)(仅)(是)(指)(短)(期)(成)(本)(,还)(包)(括)(了)(行)(为)(体)(为)(撒)(谎)(所)(付)(出)(的)(声)(誉)(代)(价)(,以)(及)(失)(信)(导)(致)(的)(混)(乱)(互)(动)(等)(在)(内)(。
不)(过)(,无)(论)(怎)(样)(,罗)(伯)(特)(·杰)(维)(斯)(作)(为)(一)(名)(对)(现)(实)(有)(着)(深)(刻)(关)(怀)(的)(国)(际)(关)(系)(学)(者)(,早)(在)(四)(十)(多)(年)(前)(,在)(他)(的)(这)(部)(博)(士)(论)(文)(里)(,就)(为)(读)(者)(打)(开)(了)(一)(扇)(前)(人)(从)(未)(开)(启)(过)(的)(窗)(,从)(中)(可)(以)(窥)(见)(真)(实)(的)(政)(治)(决)(策)(中)(,那)(既)(有)(些)(阴)(暗)(,又)(充)(满)(了)(机)(巧)(的)(存)(在)(。作)(为)(普)(通)(读)(者)(,在)(该)(书)(出)(版)(逾)(十)(年)(之)(后)(阅)(读)(,依)(然)(能)(感)(受)(到)(它)(不)(朽)(的)(魅)(力)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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